Yes, you will lose your job to AI

My best advice for preserving your value

I’m sick of hearing people say, “You won’t lose your job to AI, you’ll lose it to someone who uses AI.”

I get why we say it: it’s comforting, and gives us a sense of control. But it’s not true.

To begin with, everyone will be using AI in a few years. It will be built into every tool we use, we’ll all be AI users (or plumbers), and being an AI user will not be a competitive advantage. Based on Sam Altman’s comments last week at TED, it’s clear that ChatGPT will get to one billion users in 2025! Yes, that’s right, one billion.

Second – and more importantly – many of us will lose some (or all) of our jobs to AI. Silicon Valley is selling human augmentation with AI, but CEOs and CFOs are buying human replacement. Replacing humans with AI = much better margins for the business.

The “you won’t lose your job to AI” line became popular because it quells our anxieties and strokes our egos (“Yes, some people will be affected … but not me.”)

But it won’t protect us from what’s coming. Layoffs ARE going to happen. They’ll happen first to people who define their worth in terms of their outputs, instead of the outcomes they create or contribute to.

I won’t lie to you and say there’s a guaranteed way to protect yourself – there isn’t. I have three kids in the knowledge workforce (are you reading this?), and I’m simultaneously freaked out and excited for what’s ahead for them at work.

But I’ve been thinking a lot about how to make yourself more valuable in the age of AI, and I do think there are steps you can take (and no, “using ChatGPT” isn’t it). So here’s my best advice on a topic no one has figured out yet.

Greg

The painful 10-year transition

In 10 years, we’ll have new markets, products, and job opportunities that we can’t imagine today. But in the interim (next 5 years), this is what I think will happen:

• 80% of knowledge/desk teams will be smaller (that means layoffs)

• 10% will be bigger – the teams whose outputs are significantly enhanced by AI AND who drive increased profitability in proportion to those increased outputs (e.g., sales people)

• 10% will stay the same size – the teams where more can be handled without adding headcount

This is going to be a very painful transition for the majority of the knowledge workforce. A lot of people will be caught off guard. It might take longer than we expect (enterprise is notoriously slow), but it will happen. So the best thing you can do right now is to redefine your value … because AI is coming for some or all of it.

Redefine your role in terms of business outcomes, not outputs

Stop defining your job by the things you make – code, briefs, product roadmaps, strategy documents, LinkedIn posts, etc.

These are “outputs” – and making them your job puts you in direct competition with AI as each new AI model gets released. Outputs are where AI excels, and is rapidly getting better.

You might think “okay, but I’m REALLY GOOD at what I do.” I see this from writers all the time on LinkedIn: “ChatGPT can’t replace a truly amazing writer.”

But even if your output is 30% better than ChatGPT’s (and that would mean you’re very good – most people aren’t), the LLM is 1,000x faster than you. Most CFOs won’t blink at 30% lower quality outputs in exchange for 1,000x productivity. The “great freelance writer” will be the first to get cut from the budget.

Instead, you need to re-orient your value around the fundamental business goal your role serves. Here’s how to do it.

The playbook for rethinking your value

1. Benchmark AI to your most valuable output

Take an honest look at what you consider your highest-value work output. Maybe it's writing code, creating financial models, designing presentations, or setting strategy.

Then test the best AI tools against that output. Be rigorous. Don’t use ChatGPT once and give up. Try a variety of tools, and try them together (e.g., DeepResearch + GPT 4.5 for competitive industry analysis). Rate the quality on a scale from 1-10 compared to your own work.

You may have a tendency to do this superficially and conclude, “AI can't do what I do.” Instead, be brutally honest – if AI is at a 6 out of 10 compared to your 9 out of 10, that gap is closing fast.

2. Assume 2x acceleration from AI in 2 years

If AI is at a 4 out of 10 now, assume it will be at an 8 out of 10 in 2 years. These models are doubling in performance every year, and that acceleration is likely to speed up.

If AI is 50% as good as you today at a major output that you produce, then AI will be handling this output in 2 years or sooner. Now, your job is probably more than that one output, so you’re not necessarily doomed. But you will be relying on AI for that part of your job, and you won’t be able to define your value on that output alone.

3. If AI is 50% as good as you, start redefining your role immediately

Don’t wait until your boss figures this out – you’re living on borrowed time. Your job now is to redefine your value to focus on outcomes, not outputs.

Here’s an example. A content marketer might currently spend most of their time writing blog posts, emails, and social posts. AI can do all those things at 50% quality right now – soon it’ll be higher. If the content marketer defines their value as writing great content, they will lose their job in due course.

But their job can be much more than “writing great content.” A REALLY valuable content marketer puts the right content in front of the right audience at the right time to drive leads and sales. That’s where they should re-focus their time, while orchestrating AI tools to handle much of the content production. For the content marketer, this probably means spending time on new, high-value activities – like interviewing prospects to really understand their challenges – and then managing AI to write about it.

So I want you to take 30 minutes and define the outcomes that you are responsible for. Then identify the higher-value activities you could engage in that would improve those outcomes (NOT outputs).

4. Run the output benchmark test again every 3-6 months

Don’t assess AI’s ability once and consider yourself done. ChatGPT wasn’t a good writer 6 months ago – now it blows me away. The same will be true for every knowledge work job.

Every six months, take an hour and do a really honest check-in. What is the primary value you currently offer the marketplace, and how good is AI at doing it? Your updated benchmark results will determine the urgency with which you need to evolve your value.

My advice

I think a lot of people are going to wake up to AI’s capabilities overnight, and will be stunned to find AI can do a lot of the outputs inside their jobs. So be vigilant, and be honest with yourself.

Figure out the outputs you create that AI can do for you. Start orchestrating a team of AIs to handle them. And then be very intentional about redeploying your time. Make sure every day is spent driving the outcomes you want to be known for … not making a bunch of documents or attending a bunch of meetings.

It’s okay to be worried – I am too. It’s not okay to bury your head in the sand.

Have a great week,

Greg

P.S. I’m lecturing on AI as an Advanced Thought Partner for Personal Math subscribers with my brilliant friend and colleague, Lucas Miller, tomorrow. Sign up for free.